Mapping the Possibility Landscape of Quality Infrastructure

Christian Schoen
Aug 17
5 min read

What is Estuarine Mapping?

Possibility Mapping, also known as Estuarine Mapping, is a facilitation and visualisation technique that is sensitive to complexity. It can be used to assess the landscape of possibilities for change within complex adaptive systems or systems that show characteristics of complex adaptive systems, such as national economies, industry sectors, or quality infrastructure systems. The method was developed by Prof Dave Snowden of Cynefin Co.

The methodology employs the metaphor of an estuary to illustrate how the underlying constraints and constructs of a system, ranging from fixed "landmasses" to shifting "sandbanks", shape the environment and determine the actions that are currently possible within a given context [1]. It shifts strategy from focusing on distant goals to understanding the "possibility landscape" of the present [2].

Participants brainstorm system elements (identified in earlier discussions and analyses), referred to as actants, which are broadly defined as anything that acts within a system. Actants include people, infrastructure, the natural environment, beliefs and narratives. Participants then position these actants on a map based on the energy (resources and costs) and time required to implement changes. Actants represent the granular elements identified by stakeholders to understand the situation and the disposition of the system's elements. Estuarine mapping goes beyond the individual actors typically mapped, as in complex adaptive systems, these actors are just one component of what influences the potential for change.

This mapping outlines four areas one can focus/act on: the Volatile Zone, where change happens quickly; the Zone of Action, also called the “shoreline of possibility,” where projects within reach can be tackled; the Liminal Zone, where change can only happen with external support; and the Counterfactual Zone, which represents things that cannot be changed right now. By concentrating on what is coming up in the near future rather than getting lost in faraway abstract goals, it is easier to design small, manageable changes, also called "micro-nudges." These nudges can help us keep, adjust, or remove certain elements of our system to trigger the aspired changes.

When to use Estuarine mapping?

Estuarine mapping should be utilised when decision-makers need to evaluate potential changes within complex adaptive systems. It serves as an effective intermediate step between gathering diagnostic data, using tools like value chain analysis or sector diagnostics, and designing specific intervention activities. This approach shifts the strategy from managing abstract, distant visions to focusing on understanding the near-future possibilities and the system's current state.

The methodology is designed to mitigate risks associated with strategic decisions by visualising which system features are relatively fixed, and which are movable. It helps identify Volatile Zones where rapid, unpredictable changes require immediate action, as well as Liminal Zones where external support may influence elements that system actors cannot adjust on their own. The approach is versatile, applicable to areas such as corporate change, software projects, and military strategy. It enables teams to determine which constraints and components to maintain, modify, or remove through a series of manageable activities. [3]

A Possibility Map (Estuarine Map) [1]

Why and how to use Estuarine Mapping in Quality Infrastructure?

In the context of Quality Infrastructure (QI), this methodology acts as a link between high-level diagnostic data, obtained from tools such as Calidena [4], the QI User Survey [5], and the Rapid Diagnostic Tool (RDT) [6], and the design of practical interventions. It aims to align various stakeholders, including representatives from policy, industry, and QI organisations, on achievable changes within complex national QI systems characterised by widely distributed decision-making. By focusing on the emergent future rather than abstract long-term visions, QI participants can identify manageable interventions that help shift the system towards better performance, achieving higher-quality levels of products and services.

The mapping process follows these structured steps:

Preparation: Synthesise observations from previous QI assessments to identify current "actants," such as facilities, regulations, and industry narratives.
Mapping: Position these elements on an energy-time grid based on the resources and time required for change.
Zoning: Negotiate boundaries to identify the Zone of Action for immediate projects and the Liminal Zone for items requiring external support or international partnerships.
Intervention Design: Select actions such as triggering a change when costs are acceptable (in the Zone of Action), stabilising beneficial patterns (in the Volatile Zone), or monitoring immovable elements for future shifts (in the Liminal and Counter-factual Zones).
Implementation: Manage portfolios of micro-actions, often moving them to a decision support framework, such as Cynefin [7], to determine if they require expert analysis or safe-to-fail experimentation.

Examples of Estuarine Mapping in Quality Infrastructure (QI) show how it bridges high-level diagnostics and actionable strategy. Key real-world applications include:

Saudi Arabia’s National QI System (2023/2024): This is a primary example where Estuarine Mapping was used as an intermediate sense-making step during a system-wide analysis. It helped stakeholders move from general assessments, such as those from the Rapid Diagnostic Tool (RDT), to identifying specific areas for immediate action.

Possibility Mapping of Saudi Arabia’s NQI System (2024) as part of a World Bank-SASO project

The Bio Sector in South Africa: Practitioners worked with a national government counterpart and a development project to map opportunities for change within this specific sector. The exercise focused on identifying industry opportunities that required improved coordination rather than just technical QI updates.

In these cases, the mapping served to align diverse stakeholders, from policy, industry, and academia, on which parts of the QI system were "immovable landmasses" and which were "shorelines of possibility" for immediate project interventions.

Conclusions

As a key feature of Mesopartner’s 2025 Quality Infrastructure Assessment and Promotion Toolbox, Estuarine Mapping acts as the crucial "missing framework" that synthesises insights from earlier diagnostic tools into a coherent action plan [8].

This methodology bridges the gap between data collection and intervention design by providing a structured framework that differentiates manageable "actants" from unchangeable system "landmasses." By enabling stakeholders to move beyond high-level diagnostics, Estuarine Mapping allows for the design of practical activities, ensuring that interventions are rooted in the current reality.

Ultimately, incorporating Estuarine Mapping into the Quality Infrastructure Toolkit empowers practitioners to navigate complex national systems with more resilient and complexity-sensitive strategies that prioritise iterative innovation over vague, long-term goals.